准备还是不准备:是什么促使人们从火山影响中降低风险?

What motivates people to prepare for volcanic hazards? In a recent study from the应用火山学杂志,,,,劳伦·温内尔(Lauren Vinnell)and co-authors from New Zealand and the US explored behavioral and psychological factors which influence whether people are able and willing to evacuate in the event of lahars.

火山升值

火山对许多社区至关重要。它们可以成为至关重要的水源,为农业提供肥沃的土壤,并为滑雪者,徒步旅行者和一般崇拜者提供旅游绘画。

虽然欣赏火山可以提供的资源和利益很重要,但也重要的是要记住,其中许多人的行为可能危险。

我们的研究重点是雷尼尔山/塔科马,这是美国西北部喀斯喀特山脉的一部分,也是世界上最危险的火山之一。

主要风险之一是拉哈尔人 -火山泥浆可能直接影响15万人。

How do we learn about volcanic risk and preparedness?

People often learn about volcano risks from popular media (like movies or video games), news media, or friends and family.

However, this information can vary in accuracy, doesn’t necessarily present the full range of volcanic hazards (which extend well beyond sudden, explosive eruptions of molten rock), and can lead to fatalism—if all you hear about volcanoes is the damage and harm they cause, you might start to think such outcomes are unavoidable.

提示,公共教育

几十年来,许多敬业的人一直致力于向社区告知他们面临的自然风险,并至关重要的是,他们可以采取什么措施来减少发生不良事件时受到影响的影响。

但是,我们的大脑已经开发了技巧和快捷方式,可以帮助我们处理吓我们的事情,包括:

  • 风险优先级 - 人类倾向于优先考虑较低的影响,较高的概率风险(例如汽车事故)超过了较高的影响,较低的概率风险(例如火山喷发);
  • 像宿命论(上面提到)这样的偏见,不现实的乐观主义(人们认为即使没有其他人都没有)和正常化的偏见(人们认为未来事件将像过去一样);
  • Social cues—we look to those around us because chances are if everyone is doing something it’s a good thing for us to do as well.

To overcome these challenges, it helps to understand which ones are most influential. This is where our research comes in.

找到更好的办法鼓励社区由于d Mount Rainier, and similar communities near volcanoes, we explored a range of factors which previous research tells us are probably relevant, to see which ones are going to be the most important for us to address when we talk to these communities.

我们的调查

来自雷米尔山地区的800多人,主要是orting和puyallup,对我们的调查做出了回应。有趣的发现涵盖了人口统计学,地理,行为,社会和认知因素,突出了人们理解人们在拉哈尔人周围准备和态度的意图的复杂性。

Women felt less prepared and had higher intentions to prepare than men; these differences appear to be motivated by women seeing the potential impact of a lahar as more severe than men, rather than differences in how可能这是一个拉哈尔。

有趣的是,当看着整个样本时,他们认为拉哈尔人更有可能准备准备,并且更有可能准备疏散套件,但是基于影响感知,没有差异。

这些发现表明了传达自然危害带来的风险的挑战。

The people in our sample whoneither在拉哈尔危险区的生活也没有工作,感觉最为准备,也许反映出在可能的情况下避免危险区域的关键风险行为。

但是,有趣的是,这些人更有可能拥有疏散套件,强调了通常有许多不同行为动机的挑战。

与感觉更加准备有关的其他因素包括参与疏散演习和测试疏散路线。

These behavioral factors were also associated with higherself-efficacy,self-perceptions of capability and capacity to undertake a behavior (in this case, protect yourself from lahar impacts).

特别是那些测试了“非正式”疏散路线的人表现出最积极的信念和行为。

One limitation of our type of study is that we can’t say the direction of the effect; this is a good opportunity for future work.

这是什么意思呢?

As well as helping to improve our broad understanding of why people prepare for hazards like lahars, our findings offer ways for local public education efforts to approach the ongoing challenge of encouraging preparedness.

Key suggestions include the continued use of evacuation drills and ensuring where possible that communication is tailored to diverse groups in the community.

查看有关物理科学主页上的最新帖子

Comments