吸烟是苏格兰最重要的不良健康和过早死亡的最重要原因之一。每年大约有10,000例与吸烟相关的死亡，其中约有128,000年的年度住院。如果我们要意识到自己的野心to make Scotland tobacco free by 2034重要的是，烟草控制政策仍然是优先事项。我们知道，这种政策是成功的唯一方法是拥有有效的方法来衡量其影响。
It is reasonable to conclude that the policies introduced in Scotland over the past 10-15 years have contributed to the decline in smoking prevalence in the country. The problem is that it’s often difficult to show this conclusively. The data used to produce the above chart come from a national self-reported survey, the most common approach to measuring smoking behaviour for decades. These surveys are crucial to our understanding of smoking levels and patterns, how they differ between population subgroups, and how they change over time.
但是，这种方法容易产生许多可能破坏其准确性的偏见。此外，自我报告的调查数据可能是用于评估目的的限制，因为它们通常基于相对较小的人群样本，并且通常每年进行报告。因此，为了更好地了解烟草控制的影响，需要进行其他测量吸烟的方法。
Sales data may offer a more robust and objective approach for estimating population levels of health behaviours. Drawing on our experience of using alcohol sales data forMeasuring and Evaluating Scotland’s Alcohol Strategy (MESAS),我们决定获取香烟销售数据，并使用它来估计苏格兰和英国其他地区的人口卷烟消费。
We used data on the number of cigarette sticks sold in Scotland and England/Wales from尼尔森。他们根据大英国大多数大型零售商的结帐和较小零售商的代表样本进行了扫描的香烟包估计销售。我们研究了2008年至2015年之间每月出售的香烟棒的总数以及包装尺寸和零售商类型。
大量的在teresting findings emerged. We found that trends in population cigarette consumption were similar across Great Britain, declining between 2008 and 2013 but then stabilising. A key factor in the downward trend is likely to be rising cigarette prices. And price is also likely to explain the sharp rise in packs containing between 14-19 cigarette sticks from 2014. In response to increases in cigarette duty, manufacturers of香烟开始产生较小的包装以保持一定的价格点。Sales data show a decline in sales of 20-packs and a rise in 14-19 packs.
Another key finding was that population cigarette consumption was consistently higher in Scotland than in England/Wales. This was due to higher sales of 20-packs in earlier years, but more recently 14-19 packs. The reasons for this are unclear, but it’s not likely to be due to major differences in the retail or policy environments, which are similar. Differences in historical smoking rates, cultural norms and socioeconomic deprivation are more likely explanations.
像所有数据源一样，香烟销售数据也有自己的重要限制。特别是，它们容易受到影响他们的一系列偏见有效性和可靠性。例如，他们没有测量非法香烟，跨境购买或免税购物的消费。这意味着销售数据可能会低估实际消费水平。也不可能使用零售数据来检查不同人口亚组的香烟消费，例如比较较低和更高收入群体。因此，该数据不能用于评估政策对persistent inequalities in smoking。还值得注意的是，这两个关键结果 - 人口卷烟消费的趋势和苏格兰较高水平的消费水平 - 与自我报告的调查一致。
This begs the question: what is the unique benefit of these sales data for tobacco control monitoring and evaluation? There are several.
Sales data are available at frequent time periods, which provides a可靠的策略评估的大量数据点。包装大小的分解是另一个独特的功能，尽管未获得这项研究，但价格信息也可用。
香烟零售数据的这些功能表明，它们对苏格兰和英国其他地区的政策监控和评估的潜在有用性。确实，数据目前正在由巴斯大学的烟草研究小组评估标准包装的影响。
It is our view that the data should be considered, alongside other sources of data, to evaluate any将来可能出现的新烟草控制政策。
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