School closure, a necessary break for both teachers and students, is also associated with mitigating influenza outbreaks. Purposely closing schools during outbreaks of influenza is not officially recommended by the World Health Organisation; however, this non-pharmaceutical intervention is well regarded as an approach in reducing the epidemic impact. A well-known example of this is theclosure of schools during the swine flu epidemicin the UK, 2009.
De Luca等’s study considers the effect of regulated school holidays in interrupting influenza propagation by offering variety in social mixing and travel –two key determinantsof influenza epidemic potency. The authors aimed to integrate social mixing and travel of children and adults during school/holiday periods into a spatial metapopulation that also utilised data based on demographics and infection dynamics. Focusing on the 2008/2009 influenza season in Belgium, the mathematical model was calibrated to the singular district of Brussels which showed accurate scalability to a national level.
The authors observed how the growth of the number of new infections significantly slowed during the Christmas holidays whereas the fall and Easter holidays had little effect.
比利时科学研究所报告的类似流感的伊利诺斯（ILI）数据进一步参数化了参数。一旦应用了比利时的学校日历，作者就测试了许多实验场景。首先删除不同的预定假期，并用模型的定期学校/工作周代替，以观察对流行病的时间和强度的影响。
The authors observed how the growth of the number of new infections significantly slowed during the Christmas holidays whereas the fall and Easter holidays had little effect. The benefit of weekends in periodically slowing down the epidemic curvewas also observed。人们认为改变周末和假期的人群之间的接触和行为会改变流行动态，从而导致较小的流行病，而发生率较小。在周末和节日期间，混合行为的改变对流行病的传播的影响比这项研究的影响更大。
Furthering the observation that圣诞节holidays can play a large role on epidemic impact，测试了扩展方法。在圣诞节前增加一个星期的假期不会影响流行的时机或严重性，但是，在延长圣诞节假期的同时，由于伊利斯的数量减少，这可能会降低严重程度。圣诞节以外的额外休息也可能证明会产生缓解的影响，但是整个日历必须全年视为假期，都对流行病的进化都有所不同。
The analysis on a single season represents how the impact of regular school closures slow and mitigate influenza epidemics. However, the epidemic impact of school closure is heavily dependent on the closure timing and influenza season. The authors also noted that contacts and their changes throughout the calendar are likely to be country-specific. An improved understanding on the behavioural changes caused by an epidemic are required to further parameterize models for epidemic management which may be achieved by incorporating additional seasons and more specific age groups.
Understanding the impact that school closures can have on influenza may help manage future epidemics and attenuate pressure placed on public health services. These findings may be of relevant use to authorities considering reducing summer holidays to redistribute spare holidays throughout the year to manage the influenza season. The results from this study have helped shine light on previous studies performed throughout the world; therefore, it would be worthwhile to apply similar models in different countries.
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